勞力短缺 成德國隱憂

勞力短缺 成德國隱憂
2011/02/24
In Germany, Confronting A Looming Labor Shortage

【By JUDY DEMPSEY／陳世欽譯】

BERLIN — With an aging population and inflation-fighting measures keeping wages low in comparison with its neighbors, Germany finds it has a labor shortage. Germany’s unemployment rate is the lowest in 18 years. And while many countries would celebrate a jobless rate in single digits, in Germany it is the sign of a critical lack of workers.

在人口快速老化，抗通膨措施又使薪資低於鄰國的現況下，德國發現自己面臨勞力短缺的問題。德國當前失業率是18年來最低的。許多國家會慶幸失業率降到個位數。對德國而言，這卻是勞力短缺問題嚴重的徵兆。

As of May 1, the restrictions that Germany and Austria imposed in 2004 on East Europeans wanting to work in the two countries will be lifted. Workers should pour in to take advantage of Germany’s booming economy and generous social benefits.

2004年，德國與奧地利針對有意前往工作的東歐人設下重重限制。這些限制將於五月一日取消。屆時許多東歐勞工應該會湧入德國，看中德國欣欣向榮的經濟與慷慨的社會福利。

But economists say that many workers who wanted to emigrate from the eight East European countries that joined the European Union in 2005 have already done so — to countries like Britain, Ireland and Sweden.

2005年，八個東歐國家加入歐盟。經濟學家指出，這些國家許多有意移民西進的勞工早已採取行動，前往英國、愛爾蘭、瑞典等地。

McKinsey, the consulting firm, published a report last year that concluded that by 2020 Germany would have a shortfall of two million qualified people to fill open jobs. The engineering sector, crucial to export , says it needs thousands of engineers.

麥肯錫顧問公司去年公布報告指出，至2020年德國職缺將達200萬個。攸關出口的工程界表示需要數千名工程師。

The high-tech industry, telecommunications, manufacturing and services already need people. And health care is also in trouble. “By 2030, we will need one million more people to look after the elderly,” said Bernd Tews, director of the Federal Association of Private Care.

高科技產業、電信業、製造業及服務業已經缺人。健康照護界亦然。德國「聯邦私人照護協會」會長迪烏斯說：「到2030年我們必須增加100萬名照顧老人的人力。」

Over the next 50 years, Germany’s population is expected to fall by 17 million from the current 82 million. The number of people 65 and older will increase by about half until the end of the 2030s, to around 24 million from nearly 16 million now, according to Joachim Moller, director of the Labor Market Institute at Germany’s Federal Statistics Office. The population older than 80 will grow to 10 million in 2050, from nearly 4.5 million today.

未來50年德國人口將減少1700萬人，由目前的8200萬人減為6500萬人。德國聯邦統計局勞力市場研究所所長莫勒表示，估計至2030年代末，德國 65歲以上人口將大約增加一半，由目前近1600萬人增至約2400萬人。至2050年，80歲以上人口將達1000萬人，是目前近450萬人的兩倍多。

And demographers say the birth rate is not high enough to keep the population stable. Policy makers say it will become increasingly difficult to raise tax revenue to support retirees and maintain economic growth.

人口統計學家指出，德國生育率長期偏低，總人口數難以保持穩定。決策者表示，增加稅收以照顧退休族同時維持經濟成長，會日益困難。

Fearing a huge influx of workers in 2004 that would destabilize labor markets by pushing down wages or taking jobs from locals, Berlin and Vienna set strict conditions for East Europeans wanting to work in their countries. Hundreds of thousands of young people from Poland and the Baltic States, the Czech Republic and Slovakia found jobs elsewhere.

2004年，為預防外勞大舉湧入拉低薪資或搶走本國勞工就業機會，致使勞力市場不穩定，德奧當局針對有意前往兩國工作的東歐人設定嚴格條件。以致波蘭、波羅的海國家、捷克與斯洛伐克的數十萬名年輕人轉赴其他地區。

Mr. Moller thinks 100,000 East Europeans will come to Germany, drawn by perceptions that it is a well-run, wealthy and wellpaying country with a very good social welfare system.

莫勒認為，約10萬名東歐人會來德國就業，因為他們認為德國這個國家治理良好、富裕、薪資高，而且有非常好的社會福利制度。

But wages in the services sector are low in comparison to other European Union countries. “Wages and salaries are not high enough in the hospitality sector to be the only reason for leaving the home country, especially if you also put the higher cost of living in Germany into the equation,” said Peter Verhoeven, chief operating officer of Accor Germany, a large hotel group.

然而與其他歐盟國家相比，德國服務產業的薪資還是偏低。德國雅高飯店集團營運長維爾赫芬說：「餐旅服務業的薪資並未高到足以吸引東歐人離鄉背井，把德國生活開銷較高的因素列入考慮後，更是如此。」

The government has raised the retirement age to 67 and is encouraging women to have more children. It has also considered making it easier for qualified immigrants to find work.

德國政府已將法定退休年齡提高到67歲，同時鼓勵婦女多生育。德國政府還考慮放寬合格移民入境就業的條件。

Accor is focusing on recruiting from inside Germany. Some German health care companies have set up training courses in Eastern Europe.

雅高集團著力於在德國國內吸收新血。部分德國健康照護業者已在東歐地區推出訓練課程。

“We are doing some training in Poland and have looked at the Czech Republic,” Mr. Tews said. But, he said, “Most of those workers have left.”

迪烏斯說：「我們已在波蘭開辦訓練課程，同時鎖定捷克。」不過他又說：「這些勞工大多已經離開。」

【2011-02-22/聯合報/G9版/UNITEDDAILYNEWS】